GLOBAL IMMIGRATION AND MOBILITY IMPACTS OF TRUMP’S ELECTION WIN 

Key Points 

• Impact of tariffs and economic strategy. The potential increase in U.S. tariffs under Trump’s administration could prompt businesses to relocate operations to the U.S. to avoid costs, reshape supply chains, and increase vigilance regarding energy and trade policies. 

• Global mobility and talent strategy adjustments. Businesses may need to adapt mobility strategies due to anticipated U.S. immigration restrictions, exploring regionalization, local hiring, remote roles, and short-term deployments to mitigate supply chain and workforce challenges. 

• Shift in global talent and trade dynamics. U.S. immigration restrictions might prompt reciprocal policies, while certain regions may attract skilled workers and students deterred by U.S. policies. This could lead to emerging global education and R&D hubs as businesses and talent explore alternative destinations. 

Overview 

U.S. President-elect Trump's win is likely to have an extensive impact on global immigration policy and global mobility in general. The focus of concern is on Trump's trade and foreign policy plans, namely the proposals for potential tariff increases (a 10- 20% universal tariff on foreign imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports), as part of a broader economic strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing and address trade imbalances. 

 This article explores the potential implications of anticipated policy measures expected to be implemented after January 20, 2025. These projections are based on the new administration's stated intentions, though the specific details and scope of these policies remain uncertain. Our assessment relies on analyses from advisory organizations and insights drawn from the policies of the previous Trump administration. 

Responses to potential supply chain disruptions and economic impacts of Trump policies 

The high likelihood of the United States imposing greater tariffs on international goods and services is raising concerns in potentially affected countries: 

• Assessing operational moves to the United States. Companies may choose to relocate manufacturing or operations to the United States to avoid tariffs, leading to job creation in and talent relocation to the United States. Europe’s pharmaceutical and automation industries are already considering this. Such relocations could mean more jobs for U.S. citizens in these relocated locations, but higher costs and sometimes long work start date lead times for companies relocating workers to the United States. 

• Exploring creative mobility arrangements. To address supply chain uncertainties and the likely increasingly restrictive immigration policies in the United States, companies may need to explore creative mobility strategies that bring talent closer to the United States. This includes the possibilities of regionalizing roles (where employees are based closer to specific markets or manufacturing hubs), allowing remote or hybrid roles where possible, relying on local talent, and deploying short-term project teams instead of long- term relocations, among other solutions. 

• Focusing on cost management considerations. Companies should expect a higher- cost environment during the Trump administration for several reasons: 

• • Increased tariffs and potential trade disruptions can drive up import costs and disrupt supply chains, increasing market turbulence and production costs 

• • If countries retaliate on tariffs, this is likely to cause inflation and pressure to raise interest rates, which would then drive up the cost of borrowing and investment 

• • Higher spending on military expenses (per Trump’s emphasis on the need for NATO allies to increase their defense spending) could result in higher taxes or interest rates for nations (though there may be positive economic results as well) 

 These circumstances could depress economic growth by reducing export opportunities, lowering consumer spending power, and fueling uncertainty in the markets, which would be especially harmful to already fragile economies (like Europe). 

Fragomen can assist in proactively planning your creative workforce strategies, cost- containment efforts and crisis management strategies based on your company’s circumstances and plans. A list of service offerings appears at the end of this document. 

 Global mobility impacts from Trump administration’s foreign policy actions 

Global mobility patterns as well as trade and market dynamics could potentially be affected by Trump’s expressed foreign policy positions. For example: 

• Russia. Trump’s stated goal to end the war in Ukraine could lead to an increase in Russian nationals moving back to Russia, as well as a potential influx of foreign nationals exploring new opportunities there. 

• France. The current political instability in France, following the National Assembly’s majority vote to remove Prime Minister Michel Barnier, means that France joins the list of other European countries including Germany, Austria and the Netherlands that have fractious coalition governments. The potential impact of this on trans-Atlantic relationships just weeks before Trump’s inauguration, could potentially see wider European security considerations being brought to the fore given the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

• Middle East. Trump has also stated his intention for the conflict across the region to end. However, the collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria on Sunday will no doubt complicate Trump’s plans, requiring a new focus to his stated foreign policy goals in the region. 

• Saudi Arabia. Trump’s commitment to strengthening diplomatic and business relations with Saudi Arabia may pave the way for eased labor mobility between the United States and Saudi Arabia, potentially boosting opportunities for skilled and business-related migration between the two countries. 

• China and Asia Pacific. Trump’s plans to decrease economic reliance on China may mean global shifts in trade and labor mobility, with drastic China-led sanctions, blacklisting and other countermeasures, increased regional trade, new supply chain dynamics, and potential barriers to U.S.-China business mobility. The effects could range from heightened production costs to realigned shipping routes, impacting global mobility and the global economy in complex ways. It could also deter other major economies from relying on the United States as a trade partner, potentially prompting them to turn to China or other countries instead. 

This shift may open significant opportunities for more neutral South Asian countries to position themselves as attractive alternatives for trade and investment. Many of these nations, including Malaysia and Singapore (which are intensifying their economic ties with China to benefit from the shifting global trade landscape), will more intensely capitalize on these changes through the development of special economic zones and business-friendly incentives. This trend may expand further, potentially leading to mobility incentives and relaxed immigration policies to attract international businesses and skilled labor. 

 These and other foreign policy stances can have wide-ranging impacts on business operations, costs and plans. Fragomen can assist in proactive planning, including scenario building and analysis with our mobility planning experts. 

Copycat or reciprocal restrictive immigration policy 

• Reciprocal measures. Other countries may impose reciprocal restrictions on U.S. citizens in response to more restrictive U.S. immigration policies 

• Stricter vetting. Some nations may adopt more rigorous vetting processes for U.S. citizens, mirroring U.S. “extreme vetting” practices 

• Scrutiny of U.S. foreign labor use. Increased scrutiny on U.S. companies’ operations abroad, especially regarding their use of foreign labor, could emerge as countries re- evaluate their engagement with U.S.-based firms 

• Shift toward restrictive policies. A general trend toward more protectionist immigration policies could increase compliance obligations for employers moving staff internationally 

Expanded global talent attraction policies and related impacts in affected industries 

 A potential response to restrictions on U.S. immigration will come in the form of industry-specific reactions. For example, we may see changes in: 

• Student policy. Educational institutions focusing on recruiting international students who would be deterred by restrictive U.S. policy on international students 

• Recruitment of talent/more remote work policy. Tech, finance and other growing industries focusing on recruiting foreign nationals who would be deterred by restrictive U.S. immigration rules, and/or expanding their operations in countries with less restrictive immigration policies, and/or investing in remote work setups to maintain access to global talent without requiring relocation to the United States 

• More automation/AI. Industries like manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics increasing their use of automation and artificial intelligence to maintain productivity with fewer human resources 

• More outsourcing. Companies in sectors like engineering, healthcare, and tech relying more heavily on outsourcing and international contractors to handle specialized tasks that would traditionally be performed by foreign workers in the United States 

Tempered global talent shifts and national immigration policy reactions 

Regions that were already focused on attracting highly-skilled talent are likely to expand this focus to take advantage of those who may be deterred by U.S. immigration restrictions. In the longer-term, this could result in: 

• Shift in education hubs. A shift in global education hubs as international students seek alternatives to U.S. universities, and there may be an increased focus on improving domestic educational opportunities in countries that previously relied on U.S. education and training 

• Shift in talent flows. Gradual changes in global talent dynamics, with emerging economies benefiting from redirected skilled migration and establishing themselves as new destinations for international talent 

• Shift in R&D hubs. Shifts in global research and development hubs, manufacturing or operational centers as companies relocate to countries with less restrictive immigration policies. This is even more likely since acute skills and labor shortages, and demographic challenges, persist worldwide. Note that shifts in global talent dynamics typically occur over a long period of time and are influenced by numerous factors beyond U.S. immigration policy alone. 

• More regionalization. More regional cooperation on travel and immigration matters, including bilateral free trade or labor agreements, circular migration policies, and improved cooperation between countries on skills recognition and qualification equivalencies to facilitate easier talent mobility. These impacts would be lessened, however, by the current dynamics in Europe, which reflect more fragmentation than unity (countries like Germany, Austria, and Poland are reinforcing internal borders, signaling a move away from integration under the Schengen Area; and recently-formed European coalition governments are limited in their ability to implement policy changes generally). 

It is less likely that there will be widespread national policy reactions to U.S. immigration restrictions that would welcome immigrants, due to existing economic and political pressure to curb migration and because national policy reaction (already slow in implementation) may be even slower due to hesitation to react to the above possible economic outcomes. 

We will continue to monitor and analyze these potential shifts to provide you with a greater understanding of the implications on global mobility.